Wahine 2017 roster updated

All 2017 Big West WVB schedules are up. I worked in some of Mav’s suggestions (thanks again for the feedback and data sources) into the pre-conference schedule comps. It’s long and lots to poke a stick at, but maybe has something for everybody to like and hate. I’ll divide it into two posts, suggest read both though before throwing rocks. Have at it.

Big West Women’s Volleyball 2017 pre-season pre-conference schedule comparisons:

See Footnotes at bottom for explanation of terms:
Team/ 2016 Sel. RPI/ 2017 Pre-conf. schedule % of Opp. with 2016 Org. RPI ranked 1 -75/ Opp. Sel. RPI Median/ Opp. Sel. RPI Mean/ Opp. RPI σ/ Opp. beyond Σ/ [Home games/ Away games/ Neutral site] / Sched. comment (if any)

Hawaii / 23/ 54.5%/ 42/ 71/ 73/ BYU; UCLA; San Diego; Utah; Marquette; Baylor (-2Σ)/ [11/ 0/ 0]/ The strongest RPI pre-conference schedule in the Big West, and the most likely to earn a schedule bonus. All opponents are within its Σ wheelhouse or weaker. All home games. New coaches, no Nikki Taylor, no Annie Mitchem, a rebuilding year with questions at the OH/Opp. positions, passing, and 2nd MB, but still returns a solid core group, a good freshman class, and expects to be healthier than at the start of last year. Likely to take some early lumps in the pre-conference schedule but be competitive, and ready by conference play to defend its Big West title.

Cal Poly / 54/ 50.0%/ 87/ 90/ 66/ Washington; Wichita St.; Oregon; Dayton; Northern Ill. (-2Σ)/ [0/4/8]/ Not as strong a schedule as Hawaii’s, but still has a good chance to earn a schedule bonus. All away games make it challenging, but most opponents are within its Σ wheelhouse or weaker. Strong core group made stronger with in-transfer of Torrey Van Winden. Expected to compete for the Big West title, even perhaps be a favorite pick, and likely to much improve its RPI from last year.

Long B. / 71/ 38.5%/ 87/ 118/ 98/ Kansas; Stanford; UCLA (-2Σ); Mont. St.; USF; Montana (2Σ) / [6/4/3]/ The most bi-polar Big West schedule; expect some blow-outs, both ways. While all its opponents are within its Σ wheelhouse or weaker, that comparison only has some validity if there is some expectation that 2017 teams are similar to the 2016 version. However, Long Beach has new coaches, no Nele Barber, lots of player turnover, many new foreign players. It could take them a while to figure things out, although they could be very good if they do. Long Beach will be a tough team to game plan for in the early season; who are they? But, they have lots of talented pieces; if they catch fire, they could take the Big West title.

UCSB / 93/ 41.7%/ 93/ 108 / 79/ Florida St.; Cleveland St.; Pittsburgh; Baylor; Southern California (-2Σ)/ [3/ 3/ 6]/ Not as strong an RPI schedule as Hawaii and Cal Poly, but as strong for RPI as Long Beach’s schedule and less bi-polar. All opponents are within its Σ wheelhouse or weaker. They return OH star Lindsey Ruddins, but they lose Megan Rice. They lose both their middles and look to replace them with freshman. UCSB will be competitive and capable of winning against any team in the Big West if they can feed Ruddins fifty or sixty sets a match, but can she stay healthy?

UCD /143/ 15.4%/ 164/169/ 87/ Boise St.; UNLV (-2Σ); Eastern Ill. (2Σ)/ [4/3/6]/ On any given night UCD, CSUN, and UCI will be competitive enough to win matches against any team in the Big West, but their pre-conference schedules likely won’t give them the RPI needed to compete for an at large tournament bid. Odds are they’ll need to win the Big West to go to the tournament, and odds are likely they won’t.
CSUN /151/ 0.0%/ 146/ 157/ 63/ None outside the one Σ norm/ [3/4/5]
UCI /167/ 7.7%/ 160/158/ 66/ UNLV (-2Σ)/ [4/3/6]

UCR /267/ 0.0%/ 172/185/ 84/ Chicago St. (2Σ); Fairleigh Dickinson (3Σ)/ [3/2/7]/ Both UCR and CSF look to improve their pre-season records, both look to be competitive within the bottom five or six teams of the Big West, and both will likely be happy to improve on last season. Their pre-season schedules are weak RPI schedules that give them a chance to have a winning pre-conference season, which could help with conference RPI.
CSF /288/ 8.3%/ 252/248/ 74/ Southern U.; Eastern Ill.; Chicago St.; Lafayette (2Σ); Fairleigh Dickinson (3Σ) / [6/3/3]

Footnotes:
– Sel. RPI = Selection RPI: the pre-tournament adjusted end of regular season RPI; adjusted for performance and schedule bonuses and penalties. Sel. RPI was used in all RPI comparisons and calculations. For example, teams receive a bonus of approximately two positions in the RPI for playing 50 percent of their nonconference schedule against teams ranked 1 through 75 in the original RPI.
– Org. RPI: = original RPI: the pre-tournament end of regular season RPI; unadjusted for performance and schedule bonuses and penalties.
– Standard deviation = sigma: ~ 68% of population are within a one sigma spread, within the norm; ~ 28% are within a 2-sigma spread, outside the norm; ~ 4% are within a 3-sigma spread, way outside the norm.
– Opp. = opposition on pre-conference schedule. Teams played twice are counted separately for each match.
– Little sigma (σ): one σ represents the normal variance (spread) from the mean in the Opp. RPI on the team’s schedule. The larger the schedule σ, the greater the average spread in RPI between strong and weak teams on the schedule (the more ‘bi-polar’ the schedule.)
– Big sigma (Σ): one Σ represents the normal variance (spread) from the mean of 2016 Selection RPI percentage scores for all NCAA D-1 Women’s Volleyball teams. Stronger RPI teams are indicated by a (-) sign. A 2Σ or -2Σ team is outside of the total team population norm. A 3Σ or -3Σ team is way outside the total team population norm, and is a population outlier. For 2016, the top four Sel. RPI teams were within (-3Σ), and the bottom eight teams were (3Σ); 47 teams were within (-2Σ), and 47 teams were (2Σ); 121 teams were within (-Σ) and 107 teams were (Σ).

So should I buy my regionals plane tickets???

Kansas City, Missouri, or Kansas City, Kansas?

6,7. Interestingly, if I had said Stanford won last year’s WVB championship in Columbus, Shar may have asked, “Which one?” There is a Columbus in GA, IL, IN, KS, KY, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, TX, WI, and of course, OH.