Sunday: Florida upset, other Top 25 scores
Florida loses at home to Kentucky in 4
As we mentioned when the Gators were here, Racek is back in Slovenia with the national team.
Off today
See more scores down the thread
COMMENTS
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Ugh…that is not good news. Considering Kentucky was dropping in the polls. But who knows, the RPI loves teams like Kentucky, despite their losses. So who knows. Florida needs to win out. We know also need to be cheering on Kentucky this year. Go ‘cats?
*now
Didn’t watch the match but according to posts on VT, Kentucky was killing Florida with the slide! Florida could not stop the step out at all. Hope the wahines continue to work on the step out as we are going to be getting a lot of it come December.
1. RPI doesn’t love anyone, it’s just a mathematical formula. That they are still ranked shows the pollsters love KY.
KY’s estimated RPI rank prior to the Florida match is 29, largely because it’s opponents’ winning percentage is a very high .659, 9th best in the country. In other words, KY scheduled very smartly.
Note that Marquette’s est. rank is 21 and they have five losses too. Marquette’s opponents’ winning pct. is .676, or 7th best in the country.
4. Clarification: the winning percentages for KY and Marquette are .638 and .652, respectively. The figures I quoted are strength of schedule pct. figures, and I’ve emailed the modeler to request how those are calculated. Doesn’t change the argument or the results, however.
watched the end of the match. For sure Gators were missing Racek. Seemed like Kentucky took advantage when Alhassan wasn’t in the front row when running the slide.
4. as we’ve disagreed before on this matter, someone has to input data into the base program. and the mathematical program continues to show unwarranted love for the SEC.
comment on the other thread wanted to know why the SA had Wahine volleyball on Page 6. It did not. Volleyball was on the front page of the regular sports section. As we’ve done for the past 14 years (since the Star-Bulletin had a Sunday paper) there is a four-page college football ‘wrap’ into which the main sports section is inserted.
Regarding 68. on the previous thread. Does someone like Annie have to sit out a year, if she transfers ? I thought if the coach released her, she could play right away ? Like Croson and Stauber, etc.
USC at Stanford later today…
Below are statistics showing TMO’s performance. I have calculated her stats before Florida (BF) and after Florida (AF). I don’t have targets by match to better determine her serve receipt performance, nor do I have any stats on her shanked/poor passes that weren’t errors but still took UH out of system:
Kills per set: 2.38 BF, 2.59 AF
Hitting percentage: .180 BF, .255 AF
Service aces/set: .14 BF, .29 AF
Service errors/set: .52 BF, .18 AF
Receipt errors/set: .14 BF, .35 AF
Blocks/set: .48 BF, .53 AF
Pts./set: 2.81 BF, 3.21 AF
Other than service errors, TMO’s performance has materially improved since the Florida match.
I also looked at the three players targeted the most by opponents’ serving to compare serve receive performance (season totals; I don’t have attempts by match):
Manu-Olevao, Tai 10 errors, 201 attempts, .950 pct.
Greeley, Kalei 8 errors, 204 attempts, .961 pct.
Kahakai, Savanah 9 errors, 238 attempts, .962 pct.
At least from an error perspective, all three perform nearly the same in receiving serves. Again, I don’t have data on poor passes that did not result in a receipt error. Just some food for thought.
6. Unless you are suggesting that the data is corrupted/incorrectly input or the modeler has erred in constructing his calculation, I don’t understand your comment on RPI. And if you are suggesting this, let’s have some proof. Otherwise, it is unwarranted and wild speculation.
A formula doesn’t “love” anyone, although teams can “game” the formula through smart scheduling. I gave the reason why KY is ranked 29th despite its five losses, and gave you an even higher ranked team (Marquette) NOT in the SEC to show how smart scheduling works. All of this backed with data.
Below are the number of teams by conference that are in the top 30 of the estimated RPI calculation so far:
Big 10: 10
Pac 12: 5
Big 12: 4
SEC: 3
ACC: 1
Non-Power: 7
SEC is hardly getting the kind of love suggested by your comment. Only 3 in the top 30.
It is no secret that the RPI formula is a poor reflection of team quality. It doesn’t take into account home-away wins/losses, how close a contest is, etc. etc. You are free to disagree with me, but the weight and credibility of your argument depends on the data and logic brought to bear, and I have seen neither from you on this subject–merely assertion and speculation.
Wisconsin loses in 5 to Ohio St.
By the way, Mississippi is 14-2 and ranked 83, Tennessee is 14-1 and ranked 84. Apparently, the RPI has no “love” for these two SEC teams.
Wisconsin is not very good this year. florida letting me down big time. They looked awful against Kentucky.
Boy you guys must have a lot of time on your hands to be so concerned about RPI. I’m just happy for our hard working wahines who are improving.
Impressive stat gathering and observations. Good job Maverick! GO BOWS!
cindy — just to clarify … are you saying you think the person inputting the data for the RPI is biased? you’ve suggested this many times over the years, but i’m not exactly sure what you mean by it.
#9 Wow, very enlightening! I knew Tai has been steadily improving at .260 clip for couple matches prior to hitting .368 and .316 in last two matches. At the end of the day, after all that initial early season negativity about her play, she has turned it all around. Still hitting at .233 for season but I suspect it will quickly improve based on the last two matches. Thanks again!
even with this loss, Florida’s win/loss record will still be outstanding (unless the wheels come off the bus for them, and they start piling up losses … which i doubt will happen). so this one loss will have less effect than when hawaii plays the bottom-feeders of the big west this week. cal st fullerton is 0-13, and uc riverside is 6-8 (which is actually better than they usually are). and hawaii will play those teams twice, so their poor win/loss records will be factored into hawaii’s RPI twice. that will hurt Hawaii’s RPI more than if Florida were to take a couple losses in conference.
I thought the substitution pattern over the weekend was ok. Give it a “B” grade. Conference counts, they are all 0-0 at the start. Both UCSB and Cal Poly are the type of teams that if you let them get momentum, can steal one. Tai, Olivia and Emily were playing well and all of them needed the court time as well. Wouldn’t have minded Annie getting more time in the 3rd set, but Cal Poly wasn’t going away easy and clearly Dave wants to establish a ‘take care of business’ first mindset.
That said, they need to take care of business against next weekends ‘bottom feeders’ (Coach said what? cringe). Then sub freely as business allows. I think Coach laid down a challenge to his team, as well as the BW competition, with that post-game remark. Bring It. Bring Your Best. Against every team. Every match. Every set. No letups. No coasting. Challenge yourself and your team mates and your coaches to exceed expectations in all phases of preparation and play. Expect the same from your competition.
#19 Spot on. Ever thought of being one of pre-game motivation speaker for the wahines? I was moved – and thinking about heading out to 24 hour fitness. Just kidding! You said it very well.
14. I spend the time with RPI and other stats because they are topics of interest to others on this blog. Even though I disagree with Cindy on some things, my input is merely to add to the discussion and make this blog more interesting to my fellow posters. As you can see from 15, and 16, there is interest in RPI. But I realize not everyone cares to the same extent.
15, 17. Thanks darkfire and tongo. Sometimes, the stats help shed light on posters’ views and impressions.
18. I’m glad to see a fellow poster who also understands the RPI formula very well. As of right now UH’s estimated RPI rank is 14, and not higher because of a 121st ranked strength of schedule (roughly, opponents’ winning percentage). Side note: UH’s opponent’s winning percentage, a 50% factor in RPI, is below .500.
Again, I am using an independent calculation by someone in Ohio because he displays a lot of the based data used in his calculation. See here: http://ncaastats.figstats.net/volleyball-rpi.cgi
If you find/know of a superior info source, please let me know. The official calculation is published by the NCAA sometime later this season but the actual formula is not known (i.e., it is rumored that there are bonus points allotted to teams who defeat top 25 competition). The NCAA only publishes the rankings, not the actual calculated RPI scores; but the link above will show you a lot of that data and more. Final caveat: RPI is not a predictive measure of a team’s performance or an accurate reflection of a team’s quality. It only uses wins and losses as data inputs, not the quality of such wins/losses (how close a match is, where it is played, etc. etc.).
18. Sure it might not effect rpi much but it effects perception, thought beating Florida was something special and this Kentucky team which has bad losses like getting swept by Ohio and Creighton was able to beat them also.
A little nervous about the wahine’s rpi with this schedule to be honest.
So Kentucky upsets Florida in 4 @ Florida
and Wichita St beat Kentucky in 5…How’should that?
Watching the Arizona vs Oregon match….It’s the Kalei Mau Show again!!!! She is very athletic!!!
The commentors said, ” Coach Rubio said that Kalei Mau is a much more athletic player than his previous All-American, Madi Kingdom.” Gosh she has to be that good especially playing against Pac 12 opponents (Arizona St. -last week 27 Kills .260)
and today Oregon….
After watching our Hawaii team, I enjoy to see Adora Anne, Carly Kan, and Kalei Mau playing and standing out in their respective teams (Utah, Missouri, and Arizona)…All 3 of them have the possibility of making All American.;The State of Hawaii is by far the” Land of Aloha “and possess the “Most Talented Athletes” per capita…
22. Florida doesn’t have Recek, who is on a short leave with the Slovenian national team. She is a .316 for the Gators, was national freshman of the year in 2012, honorable AA–a top player for the team. So they are not the same team that Hawaii faced, as Cindy alluded to above.
Also, no need to be nervous about UH’s RPI. It will be down this year because of the unimpressive out of conference schedule/results (two top 25 opponents, 1-1 record) and the poor Big West out of conference record (49-60 or .450). If they win out, maybe (a weak maybe IMHO) a low seed depending on how well Florida and LBSU perform (UH needs more top 25 wins, so LBSU is still important). If not, I can’t see how you can credibly seed UH.
25, but they have Snyder back, which they did not have against UH so it’s a wash.
I really like the job Dave Rubio has done at Arizona the past few years, Three years ago I thought he was dead man walking and was on the verge of being fired.
Speaking of Arizona I hope they are on the schedule next year with Mau and Snuka being seniors.
25. That’s true, but they are better with Recek in the lineup. Recek performs better than Snyder in kills/set, hitting percentage, blocks/set, and pts. per set (this year’s stats).
Several of Florida’s players had a bad match: Holston .160, Antwi .000 and Mallette -.042. Snyder had a nice match at .262, Alhassan was her usual self. But give credit to Kentucky as well. Goes to show that in-conference matches can be tougher as teams know each other better.
for alls information
websters dictionary defines ‘bottom feeder’ as ‘one that is of the lowest status or rank’
so no tripping calling what they are – at the bottom of the league
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bottom-feeder
I am sure Dave would to take back the statement about “bottom feeders” if he could. He like most of us grew up in a time where every word you uttered would not necessarily come back to haunt you. Those days are gone. Lets not make a mountain out of a mole hill.
Ron, couldn’t have said it better.
USC beats Stanford in five at Stanford. USC is the real deal.
Passing errors only include times a player is aced. That’s not something that can be measured by stats. You can shank a pass, but as long as you’re not aced, it’s not tallied.
Based on those passings stats, the three passers seem within range. However, there is a huge drop from Greeley and Kahakai (who has improved greatly post Florida), and TMO, who passes off about 50% of the time from what I’ve gauged. She’s better in transition passing tho, but overall, she’s a major liability in the back.
Arizona sweeps Oregon.
3) USC def. 8) Stanford 26-24, 19-25, 20-25, 25-17, 15-13
5) Florida lost to 34) Kentucky 25-22, 23-25, 21-25, 21-25
7) Arizona State def. Oregon State 25-18, 25-19, 25-20
8) Stanford lost to USC 24-26, 25-19, 25-20, 17-25, 13-15
12) Ohio State def. 16) Wisconsin 25-17, 18-25, 25-20, 21-25, 15-11
13) UCLA def. Cal 25-20, 27-25, 25-16
14) Arizona def. 18) Oregon 25-15, 25-16, 25-23
17) Florida State def. Notre Dame 25-20, 25-21, 25-12
Was watching the live feed for the Washington vs Colorado match but it went kaput. Buffs were playing the Dawgs even up to the kaput point (lol). Can’t update the PERFECT RECORD list until this game is over, but it will be either 5 or 4 unbeatens at the end of the first week of CONFERENCE SEASON (for most schools).
USC’s Samy Bricio had 34 kills — now she’s in 5th place on USC’s all-time kill list leaders. Definitely will watch next weekend’s USC vs Washington match.
With BYU’s loss, there’s no question that Hawai’i will be in the Top 10 in Monday’s AVCA Coaches Poll. #10 most likely, but it could be #9 depending on how far Stanford drops.
I don’t think Stanford will drop. They played a good match against USC behind Lutz and Hodson. I thought USC was going to run over Stanford behind Bricio and Ogoms, but Stanford held tough, taking it to 5 and losing it close, 13-15. Bricio’s service aces are awesome. But both teams had many service errors. I know at one point each team had 11 service errors. Fun match to watch.
I have watched all the top teams in the PAC12, and I think our wahine would beat all of them, even the rematch with UCLA.
USC is good, and them beating Stanford in 5, I don’t think, is that big a deal right now. Stanford is trying to find their identity without Inky. They are gradually getting better, but not there yet. So USC should have actually beaten them in 3 or 4 at this stage. I would not be afraid to play a PAC12 team in the playoffs this year.
I think the B1G is the top conference this year, gosh I hate saying that. Once Wisconsin figures things out, this is a conference I would not want to see in the post season this year. We can still beat them, I think we can beat everyone this year, but the B1G, from top to bottom, is pretty impressive. Can’t wait to watch Nebraska and Penn St. this weekend. I HATE both teams, but hoping for a Lions win because I HATE Nebraska even more.
the late top 25 score
6) Washington def. Colorado 25-20, 25-17, 25-22
#30-The dictionary will give you the raw meaning of “bottom feeder,” and that is accurate, but it doesn’t give you the implications/associations. What do you think about when you hear “bottom feeders? Most people will think of crabs or anything that feeds off waste or dead things that fall onto the pond or ocean floor. That is why people are objecting to the use of the term–it’s clearly derogatory.
#34 Thanks for the explanation. your conclusions are exactly my conclusions. TMO’s service returns are spotty and take UH out of system. Maverick and Tongo tried to say that TMO’s passing has improved but it is as if they do not watch the games. I am there in person and i can see how her passing adversely affects the UH offensive system. Dave should really take her out of the passing rotation by subbing or let Nikki take returns.
#41 if that’s the case then the bottom feeders sound like a delicious treat for the wahine especially with some ginger and scallions hehe
#42 I think the main reason why they prefer to have Nikki not pass despite her being the better passer is so she can be an option to hit easier
With regards to developing subs I think Dave will probably do that on the road trip against the weaker teams but against the middle of the pack teams like the ones that we’d just played he probably didn’t want to take any chances
Why this constant drumbeat about replacing Tai Manu-Olevao in the back row? First of all this will not happen; she is Shoji’s choice, period. Tai is by far the hardest hitter from the back row and is irreplaceable offensively. Secondly, at the beginning of the year, when Granato came in, she was an error machine on the service line and had quite a few shanks too on serve-receive. Freshman nerves? Granato WILL be good in the future but she will have to wait her turn. Secondly, Tai has improved markedly on offense, hitting smarter instead of just harder. Thirdly, contrary to what everyone is saying Tai is making far fewer errors in the back row as the season progresses. Lastly, Tai was voted captain; she is liked and admired by her team mates and strongly supported by Nikki Taylor (watch their interactions on the bench) for obvious reasons.
#34 I am not disagreeing, just rather say it in more positive manner. The need for improvement is clear, or we will be out in round 1/2. I was acknowledging the hard work that Tai put in to get to this point, while diminishing the negativism. I am not sure that if Nikki (current rotational shift option) was targeted all night, she would do any better.
The season is organic and just like the “sudden” emergence of Maglio and Kahakai, I am sure the staff is working on options including yours. Hopefully, viable solution will emerge by post season play.
#43 Totally agree. Wished I could had said it like you.
Rainbow wahine ranked 10 in AVCA poll. Florida moves down to 9
Rainbow Wahine moves to #10
http://www.avca.org/divisions/division-one-women/poll-9-28-2015/
I’m sure Shoji, now thinking about it after saying it on live TV, regrets it. It’s like when he said to Cal Poly, that he was sure they were watching the match and that Waikiki was fun at night… then the ‘just kidding.’
bottom feeder does seem a little harsh.
http://hawaiiwarriorworld.com/?p=33475\
thanks. got it. new thread up