The .8 percent solution

Many of us probably agree that one of the allures of sport is the occurrence of the improbable, the Cinderella story come to life, beating all odds for a victory.

Chaminade toppling Virginia in basketball for the greatest upset in college basketball history is perhaps the greatest example of that with a Hawaii connection.

If the stars align correctly today, the University of Hawaii football team could end up Mountain West Conference West Division champions.
Three upsets must occur for this to happen:

The Rainbow Warriors must beat Fresno State at Fresno, San Jose State must win at San Diego State, and UNLV has to beat Nevada.

The point spread in these games are all around 10 to 14 points. The favorites win games with these Vegas betting spreads roughly four out of five times, or 80 percent.

So, if you’re looking for a rough, simple estimation of the likelihood of these three upsets coming to pass and UH advancing to the championship game of the MWC?

Multiply: 5x5x5. The result is 125 — that means, and keep in mind this is a rough estimation, the three upsets would occur on the same day 1 out of 125 times … and, thus, Hawaii has a .8 percent chance of its season continuing after tonight.